The Calgary-Glenmore byelection is happening on Monday, September 14. The Calgary Cowbell is predicting that Conservative candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart will win with 43% of the vote. Colley-Urquhart will be inline for a pay raise to sit pretty in the back of the legislature. I would be surprised if Stelmach gave her a cabinet position, for her track record at City Hall is vacuous. This fits the Conservative backbencher profile to a T.   

The wildcard of the byelection is Wildrose Alliance candidate Paul Hinmen. The Wildrose Alliance unfortunately has not connected with cities the way they have in rural Alberta. Their wannabe Republican shtick doesn’t work here in Canada. It only seems to appeal to the religious far right, whose numbers are small in Calgary. What Alberta needs more than anything right now is a split in the right wing vote to make future elections more exciting. The Wildrose Alliance isn’t at a point to do this yet. I am predicting Hinman will get 18% of the vote.

The Liberals are hoping that they will pull out a 2007 Calgary-Elbow Craig Cheffins type victory to send a message to the Conservatives that people are not happy with the way the province is being run. Such a result would breathe life back in the Liberals. Avalon Roberts is a highly qualified candidate and would do a great job if elected. It doesn’t seem like she has connected with voters though.

Again, we all know what the Liberals are against, but what are they for? The Alberta Liberals are still too cautious. What do they have to lose? (Just every election since 1921). They need to start taking risks and clearly differentiate themselves from the Conservatives. The Alberta Liberals need to learn the art of the soundbite too. The Calgary Cowbell is predicting the Liberals will get 37% of the vote. Close, but not close enough.

The bulldog NDP have plenty of soundbite. Like the Liberals though they need to do something fresh and get the bark back. Again like the Liberals, they have been biting the phoney bait from the Conservatives for far too long. To make things worse, while the Conservatives leave the room, the NDP and Liberals fight over the phoney bait.

The NDP are fielding a candidate, but he does not seem to be really running. Eric Carpendale didn’t even attend the town hall debate last night. I wish they wouldn’t even field a candidate though. You never know, the couple of percent could make a difference in the election results. The Calgary Cowbell is predicting the NDP will still receive 2% of the vote. With the folding of the Green Party, who received 6% of the vote in the Calgary-Elbow byelection (the NDP received 3%), there is virtually no chance of splitting the left vote.

With this, there is an outside chance the Liberals will beat the Conservatives in the byelection, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The mood in Calgary has changed since 2007. With the 2008 election pounding, the opposition is demoralized and even though we are in a recession they still haven’t convinced the electorate they can run the government better. More importantly the opposition has provided no vision of what Alberta can be to get Albertans inspired.

The Calgary Cowbell last week sent a survey to the election candidates. Unfortunately the NDP’s Eric Carpendale was the only candidate to respond. Here were his answers.

1.        What is your favourite thing about Calgary?

People – hard-working and driven to succeed. But, they know how to have a good time ie Stampede.

2.        What is your least favourite thing about Calgary?

Lack of hospital beds and poor road planning on the part of the province.

3.        What is or what would be your campaign theme song?

 Don’t Stop Believin’ by Journey.

4.        What was the last movie that you saw that you liked?

Passchendaele

5.        Who is your favourite politician of all time? Why? 

Tommy Douglas…he gave us universal health care and he was an inspiring, visionary leader. 

6.        What inspired you to become a politician?

Brian Mason…he persuaded me that it is important for ordinary people to have a voice in government.

7.        From your experience door knocking, what is the issue that citizens are most concerned about?

It’s a tie between healthcare and jobs. Earlier this month 1,000 Suncor employees were laid off and before that there were 600 Haworth employees who saw their Calgary jobs go to Michigan. These numbers ignore the thousands of construction and operation jobs that we could have if we upgraded our bitumen in the province. As for health, Calgarians see really concerned with the direction Premier Stelmach is taking our province in. Last year we knew that we were short 1,500 nurses and this year they’re offering buy-outs. They refuse to follow-through on their election promise of 600 long-term care beds and when government MLAs speak up on behalf of their constituents they’ve been kicked out of caucus. As an opposition member of the legislature I will speak up on behalf of my constituents every day: that is the job of your MLA.

8.        What is your the craziest door knocking experience?

At one door I was told that the tenant would like to vote for me but that he didn’t know if he could since he’d been served with an eviction notice. I tried to help him access the Homelessness Eviction Prevention Fund and the affordable housing direct to tenant funds but they’ve both run dry…

9.        What is your health care policy?

All Albertans should be able to get high-quality when they need it. We must protect our public healthcare and push it to be better so we all get the kind of care required for a high-quality of life in our lovely province. We would shorten wait times in emergency rooms by ensuring that seniors who are waiting in acute care beds have space in long-term care facilities that receive reliable public funding. We would hire nurses to fill the void and ensure that less nurses are forced to work overtime hours which costs the province more in the long-run. We would also fight for a universal prescription drug plan so those on a fixed income don’t have to choose between their heart medication or groceries. This can be attained and I’ve heard many good ideas regarding bulk-buying in other jurisdictions and it’s time Alberta looked at ways to save costs while protecting and enhancing our public healthcare. We will fight for your right to high-quality, affordable, accessible public healthcare.

10.    What is your education policy?

Public funding should be reserved for public schools. The government should live up to its commitments and guidelines that it struck in the 2003 learning commission. Instead, government is threatening cuts that will harm our children, teachers and school staff. School fees and fundraising – for school essentials like text books and computers – should be abolished in public schools. We also believe that full-day kindergarten and half-day junior kindergarten should be available for vulnerable children and those with special needs. Research has shown that these children have a better chance to attain a high school diploma and further education when they have these kindergarten options early on.

11.    What is your economic policy?

This has been a rough year internationally and Albertans have seen our government move from the heights of the boom to what I hope are depths of the bust in 12 short months. We’ve seen unemployment double and personal bankruptcies have done the same. The Stelmach government knew that this day would come but they refused to plan ahead. We’ve been urging the government to embrace new renewable energy technologies for years. Future surplus revenue from our natural resources should be invested in green retrofits for our homes, green research initiatives and getting more renewable energy on the grid. Investing public dollars in green energy will support workers today and it will ensure that we are still an energy leader in the future. We should utilize our natural resources such as oil and gas and industry must see be given clear guidelines regarding hard caps and water extraction so we protect our environment while getting full-value for our resource. We all deserve to benefit from the wealth that the Tories are allowing to go to a select few.