In fighting within the Alberta Conservatives and a downturn in the economy is creating a once in a generation opportunity for the opposition. The only opposition party that is taking advantage of this is the Wildrose Alliance.

Times can change quickly. In March of 2008, the Conservatives won 72 of the 83 seats available in the legislature with 53% of the vote. The Wildrose Alliance only received 7% of the votes and did not win a single seat.

With the downturn in the economy, many are unhappy. Alberta is scheduled to run at least a $4.7 billion deficit this fiscal year. This despite Stelmach saying in 2008 that he wouldn’t run a deficit. Since the price of natural gas is currently at $3.39 per gigajoule, compared to the Alberta government’s forecast of $5.50 per gigajoule, the deficit could be even larger. The options are deep spending cuts or an increase in taxes.  The result is that Stelmach’s approval rating has decreased from 52% in February 2008 to 41% in June 2009.

The oil industry in Calgary is particularly not pleased. Stelmach raised royalty rates last year much to their dismay (even though Stelmach has recently given the industry $6 billion in incentives and subsidies they are still not happy). Even though royalty rates were 60% less than in Alaska and 42% less than even Texas, the industry was still upset. Though the Heritage Fund is over 20 times less than a similar savings fund in Norway, doesn’t matter either.

The oil industry pretends to favour the market, even though the oil industry resembles nothing like a market. The price of oil is artificially high because a cartel named OPEC keeps it there, which benefits Alberta’s oil industry. In reality, the oil industry doesn’t like being told what to do period.

The oil industry has deep pockets. They are as powerful as developers in city politics. Disgruntled, the oil industry is putting money into the Wildrose Alliance. In 2008, the Wildrose Alliance received more $30,000 and $20,000 donations than the Conservatives and this was before the royalty increase. More oil money will be coming the Wildrose Alliance’s way in the lead up to the next election.

Divisions are forming within the Conservative party too. Stelmach’s leadership rival Ted Morton said that tax increases will be inevitable in the future to pay for the deficit because of lowered revenues. Stelmach immediately kyboshed any such talk of tax increases. He gave Morton a scolding and decreased liquor taxes. Economically this makes no sense. It seems the Provincial and Federal Conservatives make policy moves primarily based on wooing voters rather than on sound economic grounds, which is further dividing these parties.

Most recently, Guy Boutilier, a Conservative MLA from Fort McMurray, spoke out on the postponement of a long term care centre in Fort McMurray. Such postponements are hurting the Conservatives in the polls in their bread and butter rural vote.

The divide within the Conservative movement is widening. Some Conservatives feel the need to maintain spending to keep their constituents, especially the 55 plus age group, happy. Other Conservatives though want to maintain fiscal discipline. This not only means more postponements in health care spending, but sharp cuts in overall government spending. These Conservatives are itching to bring out the axe.

This is where the Wildrose Alliance comes in. Their leadership race is in October. They want spending cuts and to keep royalty rates low. I believe we could see many Conservatives flock to the Wildrose Alliance much like when federal Conservatives jumped ship to the Reform Party 20 years ago. I hope the Wildrose Alliance and Conservatives split the vote like the Reform Party and the Conservatives did in the 1990s. This allowed the federal Liberals to win quite easily.

If the Alberta Liberals, NDP and former Green Party voters can vote strategically or run as a coalition, they could sneak up the middle. If these parties maintain the same percentage of vote as they received in the 2008 election (Liberals 26%, NDP 8.5%, Green 4.5%) they will have 39% of the vote. If the Wildrose Alliance and Conservatives split the vote, and the centre left works together they will easily win. This is a big if. More likely is that the centre left will continue to split the vote, which would allow the winner of the Wildrose Alliance and Conservatives to be elected government.

The next provincial election is scheduled for 2012. It will be hopefully the most exciting election since 1993. A Wildrose Alliance victory would be devastating. For the sake of public health care and education, the environment, being a leader in environmental technology, creating well paid green jobs, and creating a sustainable reserve royalty fund, the centre left needs to work together. 

                  
                    Thank you to the Arusha Centre for advertising in the Calgary Cowbell!